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Morning News – Easter Sunday Special – 2022/04/17

easter02Good morning...

I know that I don't normally do a Morning News on a Sunday - it's the one day of the week when I can have a lie in and be a bit lazy but...

I wanted to take this chance to wish you all a very happy Easter (and a very happy Easter to your families as well) and also update you on the new R10 based strategy.

I call this The Annuity Plan.

The whole idea is that you start off with a 50 point bank, you bet to level stakes and, at the end of every month, you work out your profit for that month.

You then take out 80% of that month's profits and increase the next month's stakes to one fiftieth of the new bank.

You do that every month until the end of the year when you reset the bank to the original bank and start again.

The spreadsheet that shows the selections, the crib sheet and the Annuity Plan is available at... R10_master.xlsx

The important tab is tab 5. Annuity - 50 point bank - Annual Reset

It shows that, with an initial investment of £500, annual takeouts have generated the following amounts...

2016 - £3,133
2017 - £2,725
2018 - £6,945
2019 - £4,525
2020 - £4,357
2021 - £1,610

This equates to an average annual takeout of £3,882 - obviously, the initial £500 bank is still intact.

The lowest the bank ever fell to was in September 2021 where it fell to £367.75 - this suggests that a 50 point bank is about right.

Over the 6 year period there were 7 losing months.

Over the 6 years there have been some standout moments; the one that I had to double check was the 14:00 at Ludlow (2022-02-09) where Not Long Now (our second rated horse) was Place Bet and came 3rd in a 15 runner race - Betfair paid 34.73 for the place.

There were two selections yesterday.

There was only one R10 rated race (even though there were 9 meetings - it goes that way sometimes) and 3 horses in that race were rated...


From that single R10 rated race there were 2 selections...


Newton Abbot - 12:30 - Knappers Hill (top rated) - Place Bet -
Newton Abbot - 12:30 - Diligent (second rated) - Place Bet -

A possible new, additional strategy...

Yesterday's race did start me thinking about an additional strategy.

In yesterday's only R10 rated race, if we were so sure that the top rated horse and the second rated horse would be placed, why wouldn't we consider laying the third rated horse?

We could have done that yesterday and, had we done so, would have made an additional 0.98 points profit.

Yesterday, our 3rd rated horse came 4th - thus, a decent lay bet.

I need to do some analysis on the third rated horse (in R10 rated races where there is a third rated horse and where the top two rated horses are either Win or Place bet.)

This could add about 100 points to our annual profits.

It's certainly something to consider.

I shall be doing some more work on this strategy today.

I shall also be identifying how I can distribute these selections;

Obviously, Focus Ratings members have access to the R10 ratings PDF (and, of course, the Crib Sheet) and, thus can work out the selections themselves (I am always here to help them check the selections but it's really very easy to do, even if the Crib Sheet does look daunting.)

I may introduce an automated service for Focus Ratings members for a small additional fee.

People who are not Focus Ratings members will be offered the automated service for a fee.

I'll be working out the details over the weekend.

The one thing that I have to emphasise is that the spreadsheet is very much Warts and All.

There are losing runs; there are even losing months but...

Every one of the 6 years has seen annual takeouts of at least 3 times the initial bank (with, of course, the initial bank remaining.)

More news tomorrow.

Something to make you smile...

I Have No Fear. God Will Protect Me....

In the midst of a heavy hurricane season, a small town in Florida is alerted as likely to be hit very hard by one particular storm. An emergency notice it sent out to evacuate the town in anticipation of major flooding. One man in the town, Steve, refuses to leave his house, claiming, "I have no fear. God will protect me."

Well sure enough, it starts raining heavily right on schedule. Early in the storm, the local fire department sends out their trucks to find anyone who hasn't evacuated. With a river of water running several inches high in the streets, a fire truck stops at Steve's house and asks him to come with them to safety. Steve proudly informs them, "I have no fear. God will protect me."

The next day, Steve is now confined to the top floor of his house due to several feet of water flooding his house. Looking out his window, he meets the glance of a young fellow floating by in a rowboat. The fellow rows over to Steve's house and says, "Gee mister, I'm sure glad I came through to check for anyone left behind! Hop in and we'll get you to safety!" Steve confidently responds, "I have no fear. God will protect me."

The next day, Steve's house is mostly under water, and he's left stranded on his roof. Along comes a chopper scanning for anyone in need. They find him and throw down a ladder, insisting that he comes aboard, to which Steve replies, "I have no fear. God will protect me."

Well, not long later, our boy Steve finds himself facing Saint Peter at the pearly gates of heaven. Peter is surprised to see him, saying, "Steve? Is that you?! You weren't scheduled to arrive for another 35 years!" Steve replies, "Yeah, let's talk about that. I've devoted my whole life to God! How could he let me just die in a flood? I'm only forty years old!" Peter, equally confused, opens a book and starts flipping through it. After a minute, he turns to Steve and says, "I'm so sorry this happened, there must have been a clerical error. It says here we were supposed to send a firetruck, a rowboat, and a chopper to save you! I don't know what went wrong!!"








Whatever you are up to today...

Stay safe and healthy.

As always...

My kindest regards


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