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I Do Like Mondays

Day of the week photographed with vintage letterpress characters.This morning I mentioned that we seem to do very well on Mondays. Now I know that the horse doesn't know which day of the week it is... Or do they? Is the atmosphere in the yard different on a Sunday? Do the horses pick up on that? However, one could always ask the question: is it the horse that wins the race or is it the Trainer and Jockey? Anyway, I have done some basic analysis to see how Mondays have treated us. I have used data from the 8th of July 2013 up until yesterday (20th of March 2017) - that gives us a good 44 months of data which is a decent point for analysis. I have only used the top rated horse in each race. The prices used are BSP with a 5% commission deducted.

Recent Results Strategy – 2017-02-...

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsThere are no selections for the Recent Race Strategy today. The link on the morning ratings email didn't work but I shall fix it for tomorrow. The PDF may be found here... http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-recent-results-strategy-2017-02-13-752178.pdf Taking commission into account, we are running at... Races = 2 Wins = 2 SR = 100% POI = 13.88% As always... My kindest regards keith-eckstein1

Recent Race Results – 2017-02-12

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsThere is one selection for the Recent Race Strategy today. The PDF may be found here... http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-recent-results-strategy-2017-02-12-669138.pdf Exeter 15:50 - National Hunt - Chase Graduation Chase - Non-handicap Tea For Two LTO = 48 Confidence = 150.00% RpRank = 2 rpp = 66.67% So far (since the 10th Feb 2017) we have had one selection which won at a massive 1.13 BSP. Taking commission into account, we are running at... Races = 1 Wins = 1 SR = 100% POI = 7.35% As always... My kindest regards keith-eckstein1

Recent Race Results – 2017-02-11

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsThere are no selections for the Recent Race Strategy today. The link didn't work but it should be there for tomorrow. So far (since the 10th Feb 2017) we have had one selection which won at a massive 1.13 BSP. Taking commission into account, we are running at... Races = 1 Wins = 1 SR = 100% POI = 7.35% As always... My kindest regards keith-eckstein1

Recent Race Results – 2017-02-10

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsThe script to produce the Recent Race Results PDF seems to have worked and... I have spent the last half hour auditing it. All looks OK. From the top three ranked race types there are only three qualifying races. Two of those fail on either the confidence level (needs to be 120% or greater) or the RC1 value (needs to be 80% or greater.) This just leaves one race. Rather than send you the PDF I have done a screenshot of it... 2017-02-10--1486721287_863x130_scrot If you can't see the image properly, the selection is... Kempton 16:15 - Politologue - National Hunt Chase - Graduation Chase - LTO = 20 days and over the last 28 days we have had a 50% strike rate with non-handicap Graduation Chases. The rprank is 1 - this means that, of all races types today, over the last 28 days Graduation Chases (non-handicap) have been the best performing. From tomorrow, there will be a link to the PDF on the morning ratings email. There should also be a report on the Morning News to show how the selection(s) got on. As always... My kindest regards keith-eckstein1

Recent Results Strategy

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsI am now ready to start moving forward and define a new strategy based upon the performance of the different race types over the last 28 days. I have created a spreadsheet and would like to walk you through the process that I shall use to identify a profitable strategy. The spreadsheet is available at Recent Results Strategy and... Just to tantalise you (or convince you to read this boring post), Here are some interesting numbers...
Bet Type Races Wins Strike Rate Profit POI
ISP 299 149 49.83% 46.11 15.42%
BSP 299 149 49.83% 66.942 22.39%
I'll start off by explaining the concept.

Recent Races by Race Type

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsHello again... I have been doing some more work on the idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The original post may be seen here. I did a basic chart based on the recent results by race type ranking. I have only used data for 2016. Now, I'll try to explain this... Recent Results by Race Type. For every race type in today's races (and, by race type I mean a combination of Race Type 1, Race Type Two and Handicap - thus a NH Hurdle Novice non Handicap is a different race type to a NH Hurdle Novice Handicap) I check the results of that race type ( for the top rated horse) over the last 28 days. This gives me a strike rate. I then list the race types and strike rates in descending order of strike rate. The race type with the highest strike rate (over the last 28 days) gets rank 1. The race type with the next highest strike rate gets rank 2 and so on. Now, bear in mind that we had an average strike rate for all race types (over the entire year 2016) of 25.42% If we restrict ourselves to those races which are ranked 1 to 3 in terms of their performance over the last 28 days (only taking into account those race types that are running today) we increase our strike rate to 35.28%

Recent Races by Race Type

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsHello again... I am continuing with the idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The original post may be seen here. I am still trying to get a feel for this and, until I manage to get the historical data ready for analysis I'll just muddle on this way. I suppose that my intention is to reduce the number of races that we need to focus on every day. This seems to be a logical way of doing so. Today's selections are...

Recent Races by Race Type

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsHello again... Yesterday I mentioned a silly idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The post may be seen here. These are yesterday's results... Betfair win bets... 1). Kempton (AW) 2:50pm - Trade Route - Unplaced 2). Kempton (AW) 3:20pm - Bois de Boulogne - 1st = 2.25 BSP = 2.1375 points 3). Hereford 4pm - Pacha du Polder = NR 4). Leicester4:10pm - Laser Light - 3rd 5). Newcastle 5pm - Blooming Lovely - 2nd 6). Newcastle 7pm - Palenvilee - 2nd Overall, 2.1375 points returned on 5 points staked. Betfair place bets... 1). Kempton (AW) 2:50pm - Trade Route - Unplaced 2). Kempton (AW) 3:20pm - Bois de Boulogne - 1st = 1.22 BFPP = 1.159 3). Hereford 4pm - Pacha du Polder = NR 4). Leicester 4:10pm - Laser Light - 3rd = 1.33 BFPP = 1.2635 5). Newcastle 5pm - Blooming Lovely - 2nd = 1.38 BFPP = 1.311 6). Newcastle 7pm - Palenvilee - 2nd = 1.72 BFPP = 1.634 Overall, 5.3675 points returned on 5 points staked. Today's selections are...

Recent Results by Race Type

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsNow, there is something that I've been thinking about for quite a while now and... I have been playing with for the last few days. I haven't come up with any firm conclusions yet and so, I thought that I'd hand it over to you to see if it makes any sense to you. It's a bit hard to explain but I'll do my best. Results by race type... As you know, on the sidebar of the site there is a link to a spreadsheet showing Results by Race Type. This is updated every night. The information is also shown on the normal ratings (and most other formats as well.) However, this data comes from a three and a half year period and, although accurate I am starting to get the feeling that they might not be entirely appropriate.

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