Hello again...
I have been doing some more work on the idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The original post may be seen
here.
I did a basic chart based on the recent results by race type ranking.
I have only used data for 2016.
Now, I'll try to explain this...
Recent Results by Race Type.
For every race type in today's races (and, by race type I mean a combination of Race Type 1, Race Type Two and Handicap - thus a NH Hurdle Novice non Handicap is a different race type to a NH Hurdle Novice Handicap) I check the results of that race type ( for the top rated horse) over the last 28 days.
This gives me a strike rate.
I then list the race types and strike rates in descending order of strike rate.
The race type with the highest strike rate (over the last 28 days) gets rank 1. The race type with the next highest strike rate gets rank 2 and so on.
Now, bear in mind that we had an average strike rate for all race types (over the entire year 2016) of 25.42%
If we restrict ourselves to those races which are ranked 1 to 3 in terms of their performance over the last 28 days (only taking into account those race types that are running today)
we increase our strike rate to 35.28%