Recent Races by Race Type

Hello again... I am continuing with the idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The original post may be seen here. I am still trying to get a feel for this and, until I manage to get the historical data ready for analysis I'll just muddle on this way. I suppose that my intention is to reduce the number of races that we need to focus on every day. This seems to be a logical way of doing so. Today's selections are...

Recent Races by Race Type

Hello again... Yesterday I mentioned a silly idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The post may be seen here. These are yesterday's results... Betfair win bets... 1). Kempton (AW) 2:50pm - Trade Route - Unplaced 2). Kempton (AW) 3:20pm - Bois de Boulogne - 1st = 2.25 BSP = 2.1375 points 3). Hereford 4pm - Pacha du Polder = NR 4). Leicester4:10pm - Laser Light - 3rd 5). Newcastle 5pm - Blooming Lovely - 2nd 6). Newcastle 7pm - Palenvilee - 2nd Overall, 2.1375 points returned on 5 points staked. Betfair place bets... 1). Kempton (AW) 2:50pm - Trade Route - Unplaced 2). Kempton (AW) 3:20pm - Bois de Boulogne - 1st = 1.22 BFPP = 1.159 3). Hereford 4pm - Pacha du Polder = NR 4). Leicester 4:10pm - Laser Light - 3rd = 1.33 BFPP = 1.2635 5). Newcastle 5pm - Blooming Lovely - 2nd = 1.38 BFPP = 1.311 6). Newcastle 7pm - Palenvilee - 2nd = 1.72 BFPP = 1.634 Overall, 5.3675 points returned on 5 points staked. Today's selections are...

Recent Results by Race Type

Now, there is something that I've been thinking about for quite a while now and... I have been playing with for the last few days. I haven't come up with any firm conclusions yet and so, I thought that I'd hand it over to you to see if it makes any sense to you. It's a bit hard to explain but I'll do my best. Results by race type... As you know, on the sidebar of the site there is a link to a spreadsheet showing Results by Race Type. This is updated every night. The information is also shown on the normal ratings (and most other formats as well.) However, this data comes from a three and a half year period and, although accurate I am starting to get the feeling that they might not be entirely appropriate.

Lowest on Yield – 2

Good News and...

Well, I'm afraid that I've got some bad news for you. I've just realised that the data set that I shall be using for this analysis only contains the top three rated horses. That means that I can't analyse all the horses in the race. That means that I need to write some code to generate a new database table that contains all the rated horses with all the detail that I show in my normal results table. That means that I'll be able to offer a new spreadsheet (on the sidebar of the site) with Betfair prices (and some other good stuff) for you to use in your own analysis. I'll only be able to update that spreadsheet once a month but that should be sufficiently accurate for most needs. So, the bad news wasn't so bad, after all.

Lowest on Yield – 1

Lowest on Yield...

I recently mentioned that I believe that there is value in backing the lowest on yield horse (from the top three rated horses) in non-handicap races on the first page of the ratings (option 1 on the ratings email.) Now, I have received a lot of feedback and am now ready to start crunching the numbers. However, I have decided to test a number of possible strategies at the same time. I shall be calling these strategies Lowest on Yield Strategy or LOYS and they will be numbered as LOYS1, LOYS2 etc.

Speed Ratings

Just a quick heads up... I know that I said that I'm taking today off and I am. But I've just watched the ratings being compiled and, as a result, I shall be taking the Speed Ratings offline for the next week or so. This will mean that you will get your ratings and system selections earlier. There is something weird going on with the computation of the speed ratings and they seem to be taking far longer to compute than they used to. This could be why the ratings didn't work/were late on Saturday. I need to go through the code and sort this out. However, as a result of this, there will be a new (and additional) format for the ratings - I'll call this the Expert Ratings which will look like the Speed Ratings but won't have the speed figures. It will have additional features such as breakdown of Class 1 racing form by Grade; in other words, it'll be the normal ratings but with a whole lot of extra features added in. As I promised before my Mum's passing, I shall be moving the speed ratings computations to an earlier spot in the morning and, once this is done, I'll put the speed ratings back on line. It just seems wrong that those of you who don't need (or use) the Speed Ratings should have to wait for the normal ratings (and system selections) whilst the speed ratings are being computed. As always, your thoughts and comments are very welcome. My kindest regards

Race Number Analysis

Early races...

I mentioned recently that we seem to do better in the earlier races every day. I thought that it would be a nightmare to do the analysis but, Actually, it was easier than I thought. I wrote a program to add an extra couple of columns to the results table and then ran a query on it. However, when it came to doing the graphs... That's another matter!

Place Betting Strategy

More Profits, anybody?

Sometimes it's good to have a contrary attitude. Sometimes it's nice to go looking for one thing and, almost by chance, find something completely different. For example, I like mushrooming. I may go into the forest expecting to find some Ceps and, instead, come across a patch of Trompettes de la mort (Horn of Plenty) just by chance. And that's a nice surprise; Fresh Ceps are worth about €25 a kilo but dried Trompettes de la mort are worth €400 a kilo. And, by all things good and great, they taste wonderful! A bit like truffles. So, when I got an email from John, I had this feeling that he'd found a patch of Trompettes de la mort where I'd been looking for Ceps. But, before I go on and explain what John had come up with... I thought that it might be an idea to quickly explain my personal philosophy.

Place Betting Strategy

Wow!

I've been up since the early hours so that I can get the BAU (Business as Usual) out of the way before Goodwood starts. And, to make things easier for me I thought that I'd get the End of Month Place Betting Strategy post started. I added a new tab to the Place Betting Results Spreadsheet (which is available at... PBSJuly.xls) and started showing the results for the standard strategy compared to the results by using the new strategy. And I was so excited that I couldn't wait until the end of the month... I had to tell you straight away!

Place Betting Strategy

Feedback

I've had plenty of feedback about the Place Betting System. And I love feedback; especially when I can pass it on to you. Yesterday, one member sent me an email and asked... "If the 3rd rated only wins 33% of the time, what happens to profits if we just don't bet it?" So, I immediately dived into the Spreadsheet (which is available at... PBSJuly-staking.xls) and started crunching some numbers. The results are on the Analysis tab. By taking out the 3rd rated horses we improve the strike rate and get 14.70695 profit returned to 42 units staked (to level stakes.) That's better than the 11.24695 profit that we got from the level stake betting the top three rated (for 97 units staked) for the same period (up to Thursday.) By ignoring the 3rd rated selections we get 43 selection from the 23 days the spreadsheet covers and we get bets 9 days out of 10.