New!

So...

Just before Christmas...

I promised you a new format Ratings PDF.

Now, if all goes to plan...

Tomorrow, on your morning email you will receive an additional link to a new format PDF (right at the top of the email.)

This new format PDF is the same as the standard one except for....

1). Format of the PDF

It is slightly more condensed (and not quite so pretty) but it does now display 7 races per page rather than the normal 5. This saves you money if you have to print out the pages.

2). Race Coefficient (a sort of rating of the races.)

I now show 2 different Race Coefficients. These are ratings of the race rather than ratings of the actual horses in the race.

RC1 is the primary Race Coefficient. This is based upon the number of horses in the race that I can rate. Thus, if I can rate 100% of the horses in a race then the RC1 becomes 100%.

However, I then adjust this to take into account the actual number of horses in the race (Focus Ratings works better on a 7 horse race than a 21 horse race.)

Finally, the figure is further adjusted according to the confidence level of the top rated horse.

RC1 should never be more than 100% and should be a basic way for you to see how confident Focus Ratings is with regards to the anticipated results of that race.

RC2 is an additional Race Coefficient. It is basically RC1 but it has some other influences factored in (such as Race Type.) It will always be lower than RC1 but may give you some clues about which races to focus upon?

The way that I calculate RC2 may change slightly over the next month so I wouldn't rush to base systems upon it.

3). CIT (Change in Trainer.)

There is now a CIT column - this indicates of there has a been a change in trainer since that last race.

Now, I can't tell you if a Change in Trainer is a good thing or not but...

Personally, I'd keep my few quid if Black Beauty has moved from Trainer A to Trainer B. Even if Trainer B is a far better (more successful) trainer than Trainer A - it might just take a few races before he knows how to get the best of out the horse?

4). CDG (A horse's performance on a course for the same distance and over the same going.)

Another new column is the one that details Course, Distance and Going Wins...

My rational for this is, as follows...

I show a Course winner - that horse has won at Kempton (could be AW, could be Jumps?)

I show a Distance Winner - that horse has won over 12 furlongs but in which code.

I, uniquely, show a Going Winner - That sort of rules out AW races.

I show a Course and Distance Winner (so, the horse won at Kempton over 16 furlongs - was that over heavy ground or in the middle of the summer?)

To say that a horse is a course winner at Kempton means nothing - it only shows that the horse has been carted up to Kempton Park and has won a race?

If Black Beauty wins a 2 mile Hurdle at Kempton Park over Heavy ground doesn't mean that she'll do so again but it does mean that she did it once. And perhaps she'll remember how to do it again?

If you rely on Course Wins then you might be taking into account that NH Flat Race that Black Beauty won 2 years ago?

If you rely on Distance wins then you might be thinking about that 2 mile race that Black Beauty won at Lingfield (different course = different challenges?)

If you put value in C&D then think about the last time Black Beauty won at Kempton over 2 miles - that was a summer NH race (which seems silly to me anyway but what do I know) when the going was firm (and all the decent horses Pulled Up because the going was too hard?)

The only, as far as I can logically (and statistically) determine, decent measure of past form is if a horse has won (or been placed, that's also very important - and can be proven statistically) on a certain course, over a specific distance over a certain going.

Or have I got this whole Horse Racing thing totally wrong?

I have another couple of columns to add (such as Propensity to Finish & Only Beaten Fav in a race) but they'll have to wait until all the bugs are ironed out.

I'll be around all day tomorrow so, if you have any questions, please feel free to email them to me.

My kindest regards