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Recent Races by Race Type

focus-ratings-speed-ratingsHello again...

I have been doing some more work on the idea that I had about looking at the recent performance (over the last 28 days) of different race types. The original post may be seen here.

I did a basic chart based on the recent results by race type ranking.

I have only used data for 2016.

Now, I'll try to explain this...

Recent Results by Race Type.

For every race type in today's races (and, by race type I mean a combination of Race Type 1, Race Type Two and Handicap - thus a NH Hurdle Novice non Handicap is a different race type to a NH Hurdle Novice Handicap) I check the results of that race type ( for the top rated horse) over the last 28 days.

This gives me a strike rate.

I then list the race types and strike rates in descending order of strike rate.

The race type with the highest strike rate (over the last 28 days) gets rank 1. The race type with the next highest strike rate gets rank 2 and so on.

Now, bear in mind that we had an average strike rate for all race types (over the entire year 2016) of 25.42%

If we restrict ourselves to those races which are ranked 1 to 3 in terms of their performance over the last 28 days (only taking into account those race types that are running today) we increase our strike rate to 35.28%

Here is a graph showing strike rate for each rank...

2017-02-04--1486197918_809x388_scrot

You can ignore the silly result for the lowest ranked race type - there are only 3 races and the result is a blip.

You can quite clearly see that there is a trend that, the higher the rank (thus, the lower the recent strike rate), the lower the strike rate.

Please bear in mind that RPRank shows the most successful recent race type from 1 (the most successful) to 21 (the least successful) so, when I say the highest rank, I mean rank 1.

Today's selections will, from today, only use the top three ranked race types.

Today's selections are...

1). Sandown - 13:50 - Irving (recent race type SR of 33.33% - RPRank of 2)
2). Lingfield (AW) - 14:00 - Gracious John (recent race type SR of 40.00% - RPRank of 1)
3). Sandown - 14:24 - Clan des Obeaux (recent race type SR of 29.23% - RPRank of 3)
4). Wetherby - 14:45 - Calett Mad (recent race type SR of 29.23% - RPRank of 3)
5). Lingfield (AW) - 15:05 - Grendisar (recent race type SR of 40.00% - RPRank of 1)

Until I have thoroughly back tested this strategy I strongly suggest that you don't back these selections.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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