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Yield – some thoughts…

focus_ratings_yieldYield - some thoughts...

Well obviously....

To those of you who have been patiently awaiting replies to the emails that you've sent to me...

I have been rather busier than anticipated; fixing the bugs and implementing the Builder.

Now, the bugs aren't really bugs - they're more bits of code that I know that I need to rewrite so that everything happens faster and also bits of commenting that will explain to me what I am doing at every stage of the 120,000 (probably another 10,000 lines if you include the Builder) lines of code (in 4 different programming languages) that go to making up Focus Ratings.

The commenting just makes it easier for me to fix things when they go horribly wrong and...

It also allows me to easier add improvements to the code to make the ratings more accurate.

Good programmers comment their code as they go (so that another programmer can come in and immediately understand what the original programmer was trying to do.)

It would appear that I've been a rather naughty programmer?

So, how can you use Yield?

Bearing in mind that I don't have any concrete stats yet (but now that the Builder is in place those stats might be easier to produce.)

The way that I would like to explain Yield to you (for the moment) is as follows...

You have £10 to bet with.

There are 3 interesting horses (in 3 different races) and you want to pick one of them.

How do you decide?

Highest forecast starting price? That gives you the highest return but also the highest risk?

Lowest forecast starting price? That gives you the lowest risk but also the lowest return.

How about the Highest R4? Unless the races are identical that's like comparing apples to oranges to pears (R4 for each horse is unique to that particular race.)

How about the highest confidence? That's pretty good but the higher the confidence, generally, the lower the forecast starting price.

Yield (being R4 multiplied by the Confidence) gives a magical figure that merges risk with reward?

Conclusion

I know that, as a mathematician and a programmer, I shouldn't base things on hunches but...

I sort of some how know that Yield has an important part to play in our horse racing betting decisions.

I also know that this isn't really a definitive answer but, as I get more data (probably from the Builder), I'll try and update you some more.

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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