Builder – Updates

RC2

Firstly, I'd like to apologise for this mornings problems with the ratings.

I'm not sure why the first email missed off some races but...

I'll investigate this afternoon.

So, on a totally unrelated matter...

Those of you who use The Builder will have noticed that I've added an RC2 menu.

I was going through some old analysis spreadsheets and found one that had some analysis of performance of the ratings according to different levels of RC2.

But, first, I'll explain RC1 so that you'll know where we're starting from.

What is RC1?

RC1 is an abbreviation of Race Coefficient 1.

RC1 starts off as the percentage of horses in the race that I can actually rate.

I then subtract from this, 0.01127 times the total number of runners.

The reason I do that is that the accuracy of the ratings decreases as the number of horses in the race increases.

The 0.01127 number is recalculated, on a monthly basis, as the accuracy of the ratings increases over time.

And finally, if the confidence level of the top rated horse is 200% (the maximum), I then increase RC1 by 5% as the ratings are about 5% more accurate when that is the case.

What is RC2?

RC2 is an abbreviation of Race Coefficient 2.

RC2 starts off as RC1.

I then look at the Race Type (All Weather Sellers, for example) and compare the percentage strike rate for that type of race against the percentage strike rate for the most successful type of race (this changes every day) and multiply RC1 by the result.

So, if RC1 is 90% and...

The race is an Flat Maiden which has (and I'm making these numbers up for simplicity's sake), a Strike Rate of 40% and...

The most successful Race Type is All Weather Sellers (with a Strike Rate of 50%)...

Then 40% divided by 50% which gives us 0.8 and I then multiply RC1 by this to give me an RC2 of 72%

Does this help?

You know, I've always meant to do some more analysis of RC2 and perhaps add other filters but...

Now that I've put it on the Builder, I can't play around with it any more.

As it was sort of unfinished (in my eyes, anyway?) I never really took much notice of it...

Until today.

You see, looking through that spreadsheet (well, everyone's got to have a hobby?)...

I noticed that the accuracy of the ratings increase as RC2 increases (as is to be expected) but...

More accurately than RC1.

Putting it into practice...

Try it out for yourself.

Pop over to The Builder and choose All Weather as the basic Race Type and then set Handicap to Yes.

Now, set a RC2 of greater than 60% and click on the big blue button to run the query.

I get the following result...

Since the 8th of July 2013 there have been a total of 43 Focus Ratings rated races that match your definition of....

Races where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = All Weather and where the Race is a Handicap Race and the Race's RC2 is greater than 60%

From those races there were 5 instances where your selection was a non runner.
This leaves us with 38 actual races.
There are a total of 14 winners from those races.

The Strike Rate is... 36.84%
The Average SP is....3.97
The overall ROI is... 146.25%

Interesting?

Anyway, it's something to play with?

Finally...

I've also changed the Detailed Horse Analysis box so that you can now add More Than AND Less Than figures for Forecast Starting Prices, Actual Starting Prices and Yield.

An excellent (and very well reasoned) suggestion from Jean.

So, the best of luck with York (and elsewhere), today...

As always...

My kindest regards