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Course, distance & going winners…

course_distance_and_goingCourse, Distance & Going Winners

I'm currently finishing off a major code review and bug fixing exercise but...

Yesterday one of the members (many thanks Peter D.) made an interesting observation and I thought it only fair to take a short break and bring it to your attention immediately.

It is something that I hadn't been watching but...

From now on, I certainly shall.

Course, Distance and Going Winners

Yesterday (9th May 2014) there were 6 races where one of the top three rated horses was a Course, Distance & Going Winner (in other words, the horse had won a race over the same distance and going at that course.)

Now, as you've probably guessed by now, I know absolutely nothing about horse racing so it could be that I'm totally barking up the wrong tree but...

When I came up with this metric (shown in the CDG column in the ratings) it seemed to me to be the single most important metric of all?

My rational for this is, as follows...

I show a Course winner - that horse has won at Kempton (could be AW, could be Jumps?)

I show a Distance Winner - that horse has won over 12 furlongs but in which code.

I, uniquely, show a Going Winner - That sort of rules out AW races.

I show a Course and Distance Winner (so, the horse won at Kempton over 16 furlongs - was that over heavy ground or in the middle of the summer?)

To say that a horse is a course winner at Kempton means nothing - it only shows that the horse has been carted up to Kempton Park and has won a race?

If Black Beauty wins a 2 mile Hurdle at Kempton Park over Heavy ground doesn't mean that she'll do so again but it does mean that she did it once. And perhaps she'll remember how to do it again?

If you rely on Course Wins then you might be taking into account that NH Flat Race that Black Beauty won 2 years ago?

If you rely on Distance wins then you might be thinking about that 2 mile race that Black Beauty won at Lingfield (different course = different challenges?)

If you put value in C&D then think about the last time Black Beauty won at Kempton over 2 miles - that was a summer NH race (which seems silly to me anyway but what do I know) when the going was firm (and all the decent horses Pulled Up because the going was too hard?)

The only, as far as I can logically (and statistically) determine, decent measure of past form is if a horse has won (or been placed, that's also very important - and can be proven statistically) on a certain course, over a specific distance over a certain going.

Or have I got this whole Horse Racing thing totally wrong?

Results

So, onto yesterday's results...

The six races were, as follows....

Course Time Horse Result ISP
Chester 15:15 Blithe Spirit 1 3.75
Lingfield 15:35 Normal Equilibrium 1 7
Chester 15:50 Verse of Love 1 8
Lingfield 16:10 Another Try 1 3.5
Cork 18:55 Tipped Up Harry 3 9
Ripon 19:35 San Cassiano 2 5

The races can be checked on yesterday's ratings... http://focusratings.com/data/focusratings-2014-05-09-825455.pdf

Now, yesterday might have been a one off freak but...

4 winners from 6 races (and 2 of them at reasonable prices) is certainly something to keep an eye on?

Unfortunately it is not possible for me to back check previous days (unless I print out all the ratings and manually do it?) and so this is just a sort of "Heads Up" that...

As time goes on and the horses' history file becomes better populated (I only implemented it in July of last year), the CDG metric may well become a vital one?

Conclusion

I hope that you’re not all about to rush out and mortgage your houses, sell your grannies into the white slave trade and send your children down the pit…

Just so that you can put the lot (every penny you can raise) on…

The next CDG Winners?

This is just something that may be worth watching for a while to see how it plays out.

Unfortunately I am going to be tied up (although, not in the literal sense) all weekend trying to sort out the last of the bug fixes.

So if you email me about this I will not be able to reply until early next week.

Finally, an Admission...

Yesterday, I fixed a bug which caused the occasional race to show a 100% confidence level for all three horses.

Unfortunately, that bug meant that in those races, if the top rated horse won, the code that generates the results wouldn't take it into account.

In other words, I've been under reporting the results and the strike rate is actually slightly better than I am showing.

Now, I need to update the results (going back to July 2013) to reflect the true (and improved) strike rate because...

In a way, my results page is my shop window?

It's important that I get it right.

I hope that you have a great weekend (and a successful one with the racing) and apologise if I've been a bit difficult to get hold of recently...

It's important that I get the code review/bug fixing exercise done as it will show (I hope?) an improvement in the accuracy of the ratings and, more importantly...

Should give us a far easier start to the Flat season next year.

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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