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Dutching – A Strategy – Stage 1

strategyThose of you who read the Morning News posts that I have recently started doing will know that, after a question from one member, I have recently been looking into the question of how to Dutch the top three rated horses.

Now, many of you have offered suggestions (for which I am eternally grateful) but I have decided to do some statistical analysis of my own.

My Basic spreadsheet may be found at http://focusratings.com/data/dutching.ods

I'm sorry that this is in OpenOffice/LibreOffice format - it's too big to save in Excel format (although you may be able to open it with Excel.)

Now, to recap...

I am only using data from non-handicap races.

I am only using data from the 19th of November 2013 to the 18th of November 2014 (inclusive.)

I have stripped out a few races where there are silly errors (races called NH Hurdles but run over the AW course at Southwell - due to bad weather - and so forth.)

The Starting Point

Over the time period chosen, there were 4,703 rated races.

Had you blindly backed the top three (or top two, when there are only two top rated horses) in each of those races you would have had a 58.87% strike rate and, I rather suspect...

A letter from your bank manager saying something along the lines of...

focus-ratings-bank manager"Three things make me lie awake at night.

Third World Debt,

The Balance of Payments crisis and...

Your Overdraft.

Not necessarily in that order!"

So, to save your Bank Manager from an unnecessary ulcer, perhaps we need to try to improve that Strike Rate.

Race Type

So, I took a look at the 5 different race types to see how the strike rate varied.

Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.

Race Type Races Wins Strike Rate
AW 2342 1431 61.10%
Flat 4742 2778 58.58%
NH Chase 1197 740 61.82%
NH Flat 839 417 49.70%
NH Hurdles 2862 1753 61.25%

This would suggest to me that we ought to concentrate on the AW, NH Chases and NH Hurdles.

But, let's delve deeper.

Race Type Detailed

I've further stripped out Race Types where there are less than 10 races (actual races, not bets) a year - they don't make much difference and we should be concentrating on the races that we can actually bet on.

Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.

Race Type Races Wins Strike Rate
AW - Empty 349 175 50.14%
AW - Apprentice 35 12 34.29%
AW - Claiming 220 153 69.55%
AW - Conditions Race 67 41 61.19%
AW - Maiden 1412 872 61.76%
AW - Nursery 41 17 41.46%
AW - Selling 185 140 75.68%
Flat - empty 1482 798 53.85%
Flat - Apprentice 91 37 40.66%
Flat - Claiming 126 73 57.94%
Flat - Conditions Race 153 113 73.86%
Flat - Maiden 2460 1495 60.77%
Flat - Novice 70 51 72.86%
Flat - Nursery 166 85 51.20%
Flat - Selling 171 110 64.33%
NH Chase - empty 127 74 58.27%
NH Chase - Beginners 341 191 56.01%
NH Chase - Hunter Chase 195 117 60.0%
NH Chase - Juvenile 114 73 64.04%
NH Chase - Novice 366 255 69.67%
NH Flat - Intermediate Race 82 42 51.22%
NH Flat - Maiden 56 22 39.29%
NH Flat - National Hunt Flat 699 352 50.36%
NH Hurdles - Claiming 41 29 70.73%
NH Hurdles - Maiden 1200 653 54.42%
NH Hurdles - Novice 1210 785 64.88%
NH Hurdles - Selling 147 96 65.31

Some interesting numbers there.

Race Type Detailed - Sorted

To make more sense of the data, I have sorted it.

Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.

Race Type Races Wins Strike Rate
AW - Selling 185 140 75.68%
Flat - Conditions Race 153 113 73.86%
Flat - Novice 70 51 72.86%
NH Hurdles - Claiming 41 29 70.73%
NH Chase - Novice 366 255 69.67%
AW - Claiming 220 153 69.55%
NH Hurdles - Selling 147 96 65.31
NH Hurdles - Novice 1210 785 64.88%
Flat - Selling 171 110 64.33%
NH Chase - Juvenile 114 73 64.04%
AW - Maiden 1412 872 61.76%
AW - Conditions Race 67 41 61.19%
Flat - Maiden 2460 1495 60.77%
NH Chase - Hunter Chase 195 117 60.0%
NH Chase - empty 127 74 58.27%
Flat - Claiming 126 73 57.94%
NH Chase - Beginners 341 191 56.01%
NH Hurdles - Maiden 1200 653 54.42%
Flat - empty 1482 798 53.85%
NH Flat - Intermediate Race 82 42 51.22%
Flat - Nursery 166 85 51.20%
NH Flat - National Hunt Flat 699 352 50.36%
AW - Empty 349 175 50.14%
AW - Nursery 41 17 41.46%
Flat - Apprentice 91 37 40.66%
NH Flat - Maiden 56 22 39.29%
AW - Apprentice 35 12 34.29%

Now, please bear in mind that this is just a starting point; I am just trying to get a feel about what factors affect the results of dutching the top three rated horses.

Today, I shall be looking at some other factors and will update the spreadsheet accordingly.

I shall also try to re-code the spreadsheet so that it sows the actual number of races.

The ultimate aim is to identify a range of factors which will allow me to enter the data into the Builder so that systematic selections can be produced.

I am pretty sure, though, that a human filtering element will have to be applied to those selections.

5 star ratingsOnce again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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