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Those of you who read the Morning News posts that I have recently started doing will know that, after a question from one member, I have recently been looking into the question of how to Dutch the top three rated horses.
Now, many of you have offered suggestions (for which I am eternally grateful) but I have decided to do some statistical analysis of my own.
My Basic spreadsheet may be found at http://focusratings.com/data/dutching.ods
I'm sorry that this is in OpenOffice/LibreOffice format - it's too big to save in Excel format (although you may be able to open it with Excel.)
Now, to recap...
I am only using data from non-handicap races.
I am only using data from the 19th of November 2013 to the 18th of November 2014 (inclusive.)
I have stripped out a few races where there are silly errors (races called NH Hurdles but run over the AW course at Southwell - due to bad weather - and so forth.)
Over the time period chosen, there were 4,703 rated races.
Had you blindly backed the top three (or top two, when there are only two top rated horses) in each of those races you would have had a 58.87% strike rate and, I rather suspect...
A letter from your bank manager saying something along the lines of...
"Three things make me lie awake at night.
Third World Debt,
The Balance of Payments crisis and...
Your Overdraft.
Not necessarily in that order!"
So, to save your Bank Manager from an unnecessary ulcer, perhaps we need to try to improve that Strike Rate.
So, I took a look at the 5 different race types to see how the strike rate varied.
Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.
Race Type | Races | Wins | Strike Rate |
AW | 2342 | 1431 | 61.10% |
Flat | 4742 | 2778 | 58.58% |
NH Chase | 1197 | 740 | 61.82% |
NH Flat | 839 | 417 | 49.70% |
NH Hurdles | 2862 | 1753 | 61.25% |
This would suggest to me that we ought to concentrate on the AW, NH Chases and NH Hurdles.
But, let's delve deeper.
I've further stripped out Race Types where there are less than 10 races (actual races, not bets) a year - they don't make much difference and we should be concentrating on the races that we can actually bet on.
Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.
Race Type | Races | Wins | Strike Rate |
AW - Empty | 349 | 175 | 50.14% |
AW - Apprentice | 35 | 12 | 34.29% |
AW - Claiming | 220 | 153 | 69.55% |
AW - Conditions Race | 67 | 41 | 61.19% |
AW - Maiden | 1412 | 872 | 61.76% |
AW - Nursery | 41 | 17 | 41.46% |
AW - Selling | 185 | 140 | 75.68% |
Flat - empty | 1482 | 798 | 53.85% |
Flat - Apprentice | 91 | 37 | 40.66% |
Flat - Claiming | 126 | 73 | 57.94% |
Flat - Conditions Race | 153 | 113 | 73.86% |
Flat - Maiden | 2460 | 1495 | 60.77% |
Flat - Novice | 70 | 51 | 72.86% |
Flat - Nursery | 166 | 85 | 51.20% |
Flat - Selling | 171 | 110 | 64.33% |
NH Chase - empty | 127 | 74 | 58.27% |
NH Chase - Beginners | 341 | 191 | 56.01% |
NH Chase - Hunter Chase | 195 | 117 | 60.0% |
NH Chase - Juvenile | 114 | 73 | 64.04% |
NH Chase - Novice | 366 | 255 | 69.67% |
NH Flat - Intermediate Race | 82 | 42 | 51.22% |
NH Flat - Maiden | 56 | 22 | 39.29% |
NH Flat - National Hunt Flat | 699 | 352 | 50.36% |
NH Hurdles - Claiming | 41 | 29 | 70.73% |
NH Hurdles - Maiden | 1200 | 653 | 54.42% |
NH Hurdles - Novice | 1210 | 785 | 64.88% |
NH Hurdles - Selling | 147 | 96 | 65.31 |
Some interesting numbers there.
To make more sense of the data, I have sorted it.
Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.
Race Type | Races | Wins | Strike Rate |
AW - Selling | 185 | 140 | 75.68% |
Flat - Conditions Race | 153 | 113 | 73.86% |
Flat - Novice | 70 | 51 | 72.86% |
NH Hurdles - Claiming | 41 | 29 | 70.73% |
NH Chase - Novice | 366 | 255 | 69.67% |
AW - Claiming | 220 | 153 | 69.55% |
NH Hurdles - Selling | 147 | 96 | 65.31 |
NH Hurdles - Novice | 1210 | 785 | 64.88% |
Flat - Selling | 171 | 110 | 64.33% |
NH Chase - Juvenile | 114 | 73 | 64.04% |
AW - Maiden | 1412 | 872 | 61.76% |
AW - Conditions Race | 67 | 41 | 61.19% |
Flat - Maiden | 2460 | 1495 | 60.77% |
NH Chase - Hunter Chase | 195 | 117 | 60.0% |
NH Chase - empty | 127 | 74 | 58.27% |
Flat - Claiming | 126 | 73 | 57.94% |
NH Chase - Beginners | 341 | 191 | 56.01% |
NH Hurdles - Maiden | 1200 | 653 | 54.42% |
Flat - empty | 1482 | 798 | 53.85% |
NH Flat - Intermediate Race | 82 | 42 | 51.22% |
Flat - Nursery | 166 | 85 | 51.20% |
NH Flat - National Hunt Flat | 699 | 352 | 50.36% |
AW - Empty | 349 | 175 | 50.14% |
AW - Nursery | 41 | 17 | 41.46% |
Flat - Apprentice | 91 | 37 | 40.66% |
NH Flat - Maiden | 56 | 22 | 39.29% |
AW - Apprentice | 35 | 12 | 34.29% |
Now, please bear in mind that this is just a starting point; I am just trying to get a feel about what factors affect the results of dutching the top three rated horses.
Today, I shall be looking at some other factors and will update the spreadsheet accordingly.
I shall also try to re-code the spreadsheet so that it sows the actual number of races.
The ultimate aim is to identify a range of factors which will allow me to enter the data into the Builder so that systematic selections can be produced.
I am pretty sure, though, that a human filtering element will have to be applied to those selections.
Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.
As always...
My kindest regards
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