Dutching – A Strategy – Stage 1

Those of you who read the Morning News posts that I have recently started doing will know that, after a question from one member, I have recently been looking into the question of how to Dutch the top three rated horses.

Now, many of you have offered suggestions (for which I am eternally grateful) but I have decided to do some statistical analysis of my own.

My Basic spreadsheet may be found at http://focusratings.com/data/dutching.ods

I'm sorry that this is in OpenOffice/LibreOffice format - it's too big to save in Excel format (although you may be able to open it with Excel.)

Now, to recap...

I am only using data from non-handicap races.

I am only using data from the 19th of November 2013 to the 18th of November 2014 (inclusive.)

I have stripped out a few races where there are silly errors (races called NH Hurdles but run over the AW course at Southwell - due to bad weather - and so forth.)

The Starting Point

Over the time period chosen, there were 4,703 rated races.

Had you blindly backed the top three (or top two, when there are only two top rated horses) in each of those races you would have had a 58.87% strike rate and, I rather suspect...

A letter from your bank manager saying something along the lines of...

"Three things make me lie awake at night.

Third World Debt,

The Balance of Payments crisis and...

Your Overdraft.

Not necessarily in that order!"

So, to save your Bank Manager from an unnecessary ulcer, perhaps we need to try to improve that Strike Rate.

Race Type

So, I took a look at the 5 different race types to see how the strike rate varied.

Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.

Race Type	Races	Wins	Strike Rate
AW	2342	1431	61.10%
Flat	4742	2778	58.58%
NH Chase	1197	740	61.82%
NH Flat	839	417	49.70%
NH Hurdles	2862	1753	61.25%

This would suggest to me that we ought to concentrate on the AW, NH Chases and NH Hurdles.

But, let's delve deeper.

Race Type Detailed

I've further stripped out Race Types where there are less than 10 races (actual races, not bets) a year - they don't make much difference and we should be concentrating on the races that we can actually bet on.

Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.

Race Type	Races	Wins	Strike Rate
AW - Empty	349	175	50.14%
AW - Apprentice	35	12	34.29%
AW - Claiming	220	153	69.55%
AW - Conditions Race	67	41	61.19%
AW - Maiden	1412	872	61.76%
AW - Nursery	41	17	41.46%
AW - Selling	185	140	75.68%
Flat - empty	1482	798	53.85%
Flat - Apprentice	91	37	40.66%
Flat - Claiming	126	73	57.94%
Flat - Conditions Race	153	113	73.86%
Flat - Maiden	2460	1495	60.77%
Flat - Novice	70	51	72.86%
Flat - Nursery	166	85	51.20%
Flat - Selling	171	110	64.33%
NH Chase - empty	127	74	58.27%
NH Chase - Beginners	341	191	56.01%
NH Chase - Hunter Chase	195	117	60.0%
NH Chase - Juvenile	114	73	64.04%
NH Chase - Novice	366	255	69.67%
NH Flat - Intermediate Race	82	42	51.22%
NH Flat - Maiden	56	22	39.29%
NH Flat - National Hunt Flat	699	352	50.36%
NH Hurdles - Claiming	41	29	70.73%
NH Hurdles - Maiden	1200	653	54.42%
NH Hurdles - Novice	1210	785	64.88%
NH Hurdles - Selling	147	96	65.31

Some interesting numbers there.

Race Type Detailed - Sorted

To make more sense of the data, I have sorted it.

Please note that the Race and Wins are about 3 times higher that the actual number of races. This is because every race has 3 bets as we are dutching the top three rated horses.

Race Type	Races	Wins	Strike Rate
AW - Selling	185	140	75.68%
Flat - Conditions Race	153	113	73.86%
Flat - Novice	70	51	72.86%
NH Hurdles - Claiming	41	29	70.73%
NH Chase - Novice	366	255	69.67%
AW - Claiming	220	153	69.55%
NH Hurdles - Selling	147	96	65.31
NH Hurdles - Novice	1210	785	64.88%
Flat - Selling	171	110	64.33%
NH Chase - Juvenile	114	73	64.04%
AW - Maiden	1412	872	61.76%
AW - Conditions Race	67	41	61.19%
Flat - Maiden	2460	1495	60.77%
NH Chase - Hunter Chase	195	117	60.0%
NH Chase - empty	127	74	58.27%
Flat - Claiming	126	73	57.94%
NH Chase - Beginners	341	191	56.01%
NH Hurdles - Maiden	1200	653	54.42%
Flat - empty	1482	798	53.85%
NH Flat - Intermediate Race	82	42	51.22%
Flat - Nursery	166	85	51.20%
NH Flat - National Hunt Flat	699	352	50.36%
AW - Empty	349	175	50.14%
AW - Nursery	41	17	41.46%
Flat - Apprentice	91	37	40.66%
NH Flat - Maiden	56	22	39.29%
AW - Apprentice	35	12	34.29%

Now, please bear in mind that this is just a starting point; I am just trying to get a feel about what factors affect the results of dutching the top three rated horses.

Today, I shall be looking at some other factors and will update the spreadsheet accordingly.

I shall also try to re-code the spreadsheet so that it sows the actual number of races.

The ultimate aim is to identify a range of factors which will allow me to enter the data into the Builder so that systematic selections can be produced.

I am pretty sure, though, that a human filtering element will have to be applied to those selections.

Once again, if you've got anything to say about Focus Ratings, please wander over to Focus Ratings Review and have your say.

As always...

My kindest regards