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Free System – 307.56% ROI

national_hunt_chase_ladies_systemA Free System!

So...

Another day, another system!

I thought that I would talk a bit about how I research systems...

I spent a while on the Builder to try out a hunch of mine.

And...

Found a logical way of making making my hunch work!

Unique Jockey and Trainers!

The rules of the system are...

R4 Status = 1
Race Type = Flat
LTO less than 14 days
Position LTO was Unplaced
Horse is not a Course Winner
Horse is not a Distance Winner
Horse has not changed in Class
Jockey is a Unique Jockey (only ride at the meeting)
Trainer is a Unique Trainer (only horse at the meeting)

System Statistics

There have been 16 qualifying races over the last year.

One of these was a non runner.

From these there have been 7 winners.

That gives us a nice strike rate of 46.67%

At an average SP of 6.59!

This all equates to a staggering ROI of 307.56%

An Explanation...

a). I started off with a simple query on the results when a horse was being ridden by a Jockey who had no other rides at that meeting and where it was the Trainer's only horse at that meeting.

You see, I had a little suspicion that...

If A.P. McCoy was going all the way up to Aintree to ride just one horse...

And, if J. P. McManus was only entering once horse in a meeting, then...

There might be a good reason for that?

b). I did some simple queries to identify where the Unique Jockey/Trainer combination worked best.

Obviously, now I can just choose to show Race Type statistics but that wasn't in place last Friday.

I wanted to have as few filters as possible; in my opinion, the best systems are those that aren't overly complicated.

However, to take some complication out of the system I had to choose that Change in Class (since last race) was set to No.

That just means that I wasn't going to evaluate a system where some selections had gone up in class whilst others had dropped a class or 2?

c). I wanted horses that would have a good starting price.

Obviously I could have set a Forecast SP of greater than an arbitrary figure but...

The market is fickle?

To be honest, the most basic rating of all is Market interest..

In other words, the price that you have to pay?

The forecast starting price (which is largely dependent on the last result?)

So, I decided to look at horses that weren't placed last time out.

And, please forgive me for suggesting that this might ever happen but...

If a Trainer was planning a betting coup...

Wouldn't they race a horse in races it couldn't even get placed in?

Just to raise the starting price?

d). Likewise, I wanted to look at horses who had never won at the course or over the distance.

I was looking for horses who weren't expected to win.

So, I chose Course Winner = No and Distance Winner = No?

After all...

If you were planning a betting coup, you wouldn't want to run a horse over a course or distance that it had proven form on?

Or, am I just being cynical here?

e). And that was basically it!

It took four pages of an A4 notebook (and 2 hours of work) to record the results of all different combinations and permutation but...

It was worth it in the end.

Sometimes you have to ask yourself why a Jockey only has one ride at a meeting and that ride is on the only horses that a trainer has carted up to that course?

You can improve the value of this system by disregarding those silly races where there are often Unique Jockeys and Unique Trainers.

Such as Amateur Races, Gentleman's Races and Charity Races.

After all...

These systems are just a guideline,

It's your hard earned money that you're giving to the Bookie (or the Betting Exchange) and...

There's nothing to stop you from adding some "simple common sense" to the system?

However, as a simple system...

Without the "simple common sense" element...

A strike rate of 46.67% at an average SP of 6.59 which all equates to a staggering ROI of 307.56%...

Isn't too bad?

Conclusion

The system is really one that I'm happy with.

It will give about 3 selections a month during the Flat season but...

I'll certainly be adding it to my portfolio.

There are now 96 Free public systems available on the Systems Page (with more being added every day.)

The Strike Rate, SP and ROI are re-calculated every night so you're really getting the true statistics.

Remember, if you subscribe to any of the free systems (or create your own private ones) then you will receive just one email a day (at 10:30 am) with any system selections.

And to subscribe to a system couldn't be simpler...

Just go to the Systems Page and click on the button for the system that you like.

My Portfolio

I currently have 8 systems ready to go in my portfolio.

Combined, my 8 systems will give 179 selections a year. I want a selection every day (from my portfolio) so I'm about 49% there?

So...

An early start tomorrow?

I've got 3 more systems to review (thanks Ang) but...

I've just sort of slightly noticed that...

It's Wine O'Clock!

So I'll say goodnight for today!

Please, enjoy your evening; I hope that you made some money from Focus Ratings today?

The strike rate from the top three rated horses seems to be approaching the magical 80% which is my target!

It seems to be getting better every day?

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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