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Free System – A Walkthrough…

national_hunt_chase_ladies_systemA Free System!

Now, I've often said that we do rubbish on Mondays!

But, what do I know?

Yesterday we managed a 44.83% Strike Rate for the top rated horse...

And 82.76% of all races were won by one of the top three rated horses - that should be of interest to the layers?

I've also said that we do rubbish in Apprentice races!

So, you can imagine my shock when I discovered that it is actually profitable to blindly back the top rated horse in all Flat Apprentice races!

So, I dived into the Builder to take a look at how I could increase the profitability.

And...

Decided to write a walkthrough to show you how I create my systems.

Flat Apprentice - not April

1). I started off by running this query...

Top Rated Horse
Race Type = Flat
Race Type 2 = Apprentice
R4 greater than 3.5 - I wasn't actually interested in the R4 but I did want to avoid those races where the horse was too close to the Average horse (who always has an R4 of 3.0) as that would suggest a too even race - not good for results.

This gave me the following results...

Races Strike Rate Roi
172 28.48% 140.40%

Now, that's a good start but the strike rate is far too low for me; I don't like losers!

2). So, I then decided to test whether the performance of the top rated horse varied between the UK and Ireland.

Race Country = UK

This gave me the following results...

Races Strike Rate Roi
120 32.14% 150.09%

A definite improvement and the figures were starting to move in the right direction.

3). Remembering the difficult April that we had on the Flat this year, I decided to look at the monthly results and...

My suspicion was correct - 4 races in April and 4 losers!

So I then selected only those months for the Flat season but, excluding April.

Normally I would see this as a bit of back fixing but...

There is logic here; I know that many of you don't bet on Flat races in April as the weather is too unpredictable and the horses are either knackered having raced on the sand all winter or...

Unproven after a long lay off?

Race Month = May to October inclusive

This gave me the following results...

Races Strike Rate Roi
116 33.33% 155.65%

I took a look at a number of other filters but, although some of them improved the ROI, they seemed incidental, in other words, I couldn't explain the logic to them.

4). However, LTO of less than 14 days did make some sense to me...

Although I fully admit that I know nothing about Horse Racing!

If I were a trainer and a horse had had a long lay off, would I trust it to an apprentice?

I think that I'd only want my apprentice to sit on a horse that has shown it's form (and character) in a fairly recent race?

So, I set....

LTO = less than 14 days

This gave me the following results...

Races Strike Rate Roi
66 39.34% 184.90%

Conclusion

So, that's another NH Flat system to go into the portfolio.

It will give about 11 selections a month but...

Funnily enough....

There is a System Selection today....

Selection = Nottingham - 20:25:00 - Appyjack (2)

And having mentioned it here...

It's bound to come last!

Anyway,

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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