Focus Ratings is a Uk and Irish Horse Racing ratings service designed to aid you and help you narrow the field so that you can concentrate on the real contenders. Our completely computerised analysis system selects the top three rated horses from each race and sends out the ratings every day at 10:00 a.m.  Wonderful results and an excellent strike rate.  Use Focus Ratings to win more money and make more profits from British and Irish Horse Racing.  The only horse racing system you'll ever need.

Free System – ROI = 224.98%

national_hunt_chase_ladies_systemA Free System!

Over the last year, or so, I have been doing a lot of analysis of the Ratings results...

Partly to try to improve the ratings but, also...

To try and find angles to profit from the ratings.

As a result, I've got hundreds of spreadsheets full of test data.

This morning I remembered a spreadsheet that was full of analysis of the performance of the Beaten Favourite on the Flat.

There was, I seemed to remember, an interesting element to that spreadsheet?

So, I then spent the next 3 hours (perhaps I exaggerate slightly?) trying to find the relevant spreadsheet!

A word to the wise...

Always name your spreadsheets so that you can tell what they contain just by looking at the file name?

High priced Beaten Favs on the Flat

The rules of the system are...

Back Top Rated horses
In Flat Races
Where the race is NOT a Handicap Race
And the Horse is a Beaten Favourite
And the Horse's Forecast Starting Price is greater than 7.5

The angle that I wanted to test (that a 6 month old spreadsheet had suggested) was that sometimes, Beaten Favourites are under bet (I assume because they let people down last time out?) and, as a result, can be good value.

My spreadsheet indicated that Beaten Favourites where they are Top rated horses in non-handicap races on the Flat were actually profitable across the board.

So I started by using the Builder to test it out.

I was right (or, rather, my spreadsheet was right!)

Try it for yourself...

Go to the Builder and run a simple query; set the Race Type to Flat and Handicap to NO and Beaten Favourite to YES.

That's it!

The Top Rated horse is chosen by default and the results are...

The Strike Rate is... 40.17%
The Average SP is... 2.76
The overall ROI is... 110.87%

So, blindly backing the Top Rated horse where it is a Beaten Favourite in non-handicap races on the Flat is profitable on it's own!

However, although I like the Strike Rate (I prefer high strike rate systems as I don't like losers or long losing runs), the Average SP is a bit low (which makes the ROI too low for my purposes.)

So, I took a quick look at the spreadsheet and decided to test something out...

I started setting different values for the Forecast Starting price field (the one in the Price Range section - where you can set your own values.)

Strangely enough, I found that the Strike Rate and the ROI increased as the Forecast Starting Price was increased.

I went up in 0.1 increments (starting at 3.0 as a minimum forecast starting price) and eventually found the sweet spot...

That is, the sweet spot for my purposes - some of you might prefer more races but at a lower strike rate, we're all different...

Was a Forecast Starting Price of more than 7.5

The whole process took about 20 minutes...

Not including the hour that I spent (yes, I was slightly exaggerating earlier - it just felt like 3 hours!) finding that 6 month old spreadsheet!

System Statistics

There have been 24 qualifying races over the last year.

From these there have been 8 winners.

focus-ratings-red-wine-and-smelly-cheeseThat gives us an decent strike rate of 33.33% (about my minimum - I don't like long losing runs.)

At an average SP of 6.75!

I rather like that; a £2 winning bet earns me enough to buy a decent bottle of red wine, an armful of baguettes and a nice big really stinky smelly cheese!

You can see where my priorities lie?

This all equates to a rather tasty ROI of 224.98%

Conclusion

So, this little system will only give about 1 selection a fortnight but...

I'll certainly be adding it to my portfolio as it fills my basic criteria of...

1). High Strike Rate. I like winners – losers upset me.

2). High ROI. Why bet on horses if you’re not going to make money?

3). Sound logic. Every system in the portfolio will have some sound logic behind it. Thus, there will be none of those systems (what I call Benjamin Street Systems) where you bet on horses that came 3rd last time out, are running in only 13 horse races where the saddle cloth number is even on days when there’s a full moon (but not in February or June, of course!)

There are now 27 Free public systems available on the Systems Page (with more being added every day.)

The Strike Rate, SP and ROI are re-calculated every night so you're really getting the true statistics.

Remember, if you subscribe to any of the free systems (or create your own private ones) then you will receive just one email a day (at 10:30 am) with any system selections.

And to subscribe to a system couldn't be simpler...

Just go to the Systems Page and click on the button for the system that you like.

I currently have 3 (non-overlapping) systems ready to go in my portfolio.

This one does potentially overlap with my Flat Claimers – big priced boys system but I'm going to include it in my portfolio anyway.

There is a very slight risk that this system and that system will both give a selection in the same race but...

These are such focussed micro systems that that is very unlikely?

Anyway, Dutchers bet on more than on horse in the same race?

Combined, my four systems will give 101 selections a year. I want a selection every day (from my portfolio) so I'm about 28% there?

The work is progressing fairly quickly and, you know what...

It is great fun and doesn't even seem like work!

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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