Free System – ROI = 332.90%

A Free System!

Sometimes you have to think outside the box to come up with system ideas?

I was looking at a system that Ang sent me and thought...

Why not look at this from a different angle?

I spent a while on the Builder working it out.

And...

Decided to concentrate on horses that people didn't think were going to win.

I'll explain...

Irish Logic

The rules of the system are...

R4 Status = 1
Race Country = Ireland
Non-handicap races only.
Race Type = Flat
LTO less than 14 days
Position LTO was Unplaced
Horse is not a Course Winner
Horse is not a Distance Winner
Average R4>4.0

System Statistics

There have been 11 qualifying races over the last year.

But these were spread over only 5 months.

Two of these were a non runners.

Leaving 9 races.

From these there have been 7 winners.

That gives us a decent strike rate of 77.78%

At an average SP of 4.28!

This all equates to an immense ROI of 332.90%

An Explanation...

a). R4 = 1 and Average R4>4.0 - The high Average R4 shows that the horse has been highly rated in the past and is considered to be highest rated horse in the current race.

A good horse, in other words.

b). Last Time Out less than 14 days - This shows that the Trainer considers the horse to be fit, on the top of its form and ready to race again.

c). Unplaced Last Time Out - Now, this is the interesting bit. I have the suspicion that too many people only look at the horse's last race when deciding what to bet on?

I could be wrong but I feel that this gives a horse that was unplaced in its last race and element of value.

d). Not a Course Winner and Not a Distance Winner - Once again, I'm not a fan of these 2 criteria. Just because a horse has won at Southwell doesn't mean that the distance or the going will be the same in this race?

And, how many years ago did that horse win over that distance or at that course?

As above, I also feel that many people might be tempted to choose a course or/and distance winner over a potentially better horse just because it's on the race card?

d). Race Type = Flat Non Handicaps and Country is Ireland - And that's it!

I analysed the results by Race Course and it stood out that the real value is in Irish races.

I'm not too sure why that might be?

The logic of the system is that we are looking at good horses (Top on R4 and a high Average R4) which are under bet because of the result last time out.

And, if the trainer wants to give the horse another shot, especially at a course that the horse has never won at...

And over a distance that the horse has never won over..

Then perhaps the trainer might know a thing or two that the betting market doesn't?

Or perhaps he's got something up his sleeve?

And that's the logic of the system?

Conclusion

The system is one that I'm really content with.

It will give about 2 selections a month during the Flat season but...

I'll certainly be adding it to my portfolio.

There are now 110 Free public systems available on the Systems Page (with more being added every day.)

The Strike Rate, SP and ROI are re-calculated every night so you're really getting the true statistics.

Remember, if you subscribe to any of the free systems (or create your own private ones) then you will receive just one email a day (at 10:30 am) with any system selections.

And to subscribe to a system couldn't be simpler...

Just go to the Systems Page and click on the button for the system that you like.

My Portfolio

I currently have 9 systems ready to go in my portfolio.

Combined, my 9 systems will give 190 selections a year. I want a selection every day (from my portfolio) so I'm about 52% there?

I've got 5 more systems to review (thanks Ang) but...

I've also got to try and get the Lay option working today.

Anyway,

As always...

My kindest regards

One Response to “Free System – ROI = 332.90%”

1. mike cox says:

   November 11, 2014 at 9:57 am

   Hi Kieth
   Any thoughts on dutching the top 3 ?

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