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Free System – 65% Strike Rate!

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I've been looking at some systems that Ang has sent me and...

One of them looked quite interesting?

Now, all of my systems will be micro-systems and will, together, generate about 7 selections a week.

Anyway, I spent a while on the Builder working it out.

And...

Decided to look at All Weather races during the proper season..

And, specifically concentrate on horses that did badly last time out...

AW Seasonal Losers (to win!)

The rules of the system are...

R4 Status = 1
Non-handicap races only.
Race Type = All Weather
Position LTO was Unplaced
R4 greater than Average R4
September to March only
Average R4 greater than 2.5
Horse's Confidence greater than 140%

System Statistics

There have been 21 qualifying races over the last year.

But these were spread over only 7 months.

One of these was a non runners.

Leaving 20 actual races.

From these there have been 13 winners.

That gives us a strike rate of 65%

At an average SP of 3.04

This all equates to an ROI of 197.6%

An Explanation...

a). R4 = 1 - Obviously, we should be looking at the horse which is be highest rated horse in the current race.

A good horse, in other words.

b). Average R4 greater than 2.5 - The high Average R4 shows that the horse has been highly rated in the past.

A good horse, in other words.

c). R4 greater than Average R4 - This shows that, either the horse is improving or...

It is being raced in a race that it is more suited to?

d). Unplaced Last Time Out - Now, this is the interesting bit. I have the suspicion that too many people only look at the horse's last race when deciding what to bet on?

I could be wrong but I feel that this gives a horse that was unplaced in its last race an element of value.

e). Horse's Confidence greater than 140% - This shows that the horse is considered to be superior to the 2nd rated horse by quite a margin.

f). Race Type = AW Non Handicaps - I was only looking at All Weather races as that's where I have a slight hole in my growing portfolio.

g). Race Month = September to March - By looking at the results by month, it became apparent that the results were far better for the Proper All Weather season.

I'm not sure why that is but...

I suppose it makes sense?

The logic of the system is that we are looking at good horses (Top on R4 and a high Average R4)..

Which are improving (R4 greater than Average R4)...

Which are under bet because of the result last time out.

And are running in the proper All Weather season and...

Are substantially the best horse in the race according to the ratings (Confidence = 140%)

And that's the logic of the system?

Conclusion

So, another system that I'm happy with.

It will give about 3 selections a month during the proper AW season but...

I'll certainly be adding it to my portfolio.

There are now 126 Free public systems available on the Systems Page (with more being added every day.)

The Strike Rate, SP and ROI are re-calculated every night so you're really getting the true statistics.

Remember, if you subscribe to any of the free systems (or create your own private ones) then you will receive just one email a day (at 10:30 am) with any system selections.

And to subscribe to a system couldn't be simpler...

Just go to the Systems Page and click on the button for the system that you like.

My Portfolio

I currently have 11 systems ready to go in my portfolio.

Combined, my 11 systems will give 230 selections a year. I want a selection every day (from my portfolio) so I'm about 63% there?

I've got 5 more systems to review (thanks Ang) but...

I've still got to try and get the Lay option fully working today.

Anyway,

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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