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Ladies for Chases – 145% ROI!

national_hunt_chase_ladies_systemA Free Strategy

Last month I was working with a member, trying to help him with a system that he had come up with and I noticed something that looked interesting to me.

Now, as you probably all know by now...

I know absolutely nothing about horse racing!

But I do know that, sometimes, it pays to be contrary!

It pays to be contrary!

Now, ever since I've been interested in Horse Racing (which is different to actually knowing anything about it?), I've sort of understood that female horses (Mares and Fillies) don't do as well as their male counterparts.

And that sort of makes sense to me?

After all...

Men are better at rugby than women?

We're bigger, after all, and there are times when size matters?

focus-ratings-horse-racing-ratingsAlthough, having said that, I do know a woman who runs a local crêperie who is large enough to take on the All Blacks without raising much of a sweat!

Still, sometimes it pays to question some of the pre-conceived ideas?

After all, many of those may have originated in our fathers' days?

And what might have been the case in the 50's or 60's might now, due to technological advances, no longer be so?

So, I decided to take a closer look.

Looking at the Ladies!

I ran a database query (and I should say that I'm always prepared to run similar queries for you, so that you can test out your own ideas - just ask), to look at Top Rated Horses in National Hunt Races.

I chose the National Hunt races as I have more accurate data for the Autumn and Winter of 2013/2014.

The spreadsheet can be found at... http://focusratings.com/data/nh_ladies.xls - you'll notice that there are 2 tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet; one for the data and one for the analysis (I've named that Race Type.)

The Analysis

I did a simple Pivot Table to see which types of National Hunt Races the ladies (Mare's and Fillies) do best in - please bear in mind that I've only looked at Top Rated horses.

And the results were...

Race Type Wins NR Races Strike Rate Av SP ROI
NH Chase 16 1 47 34.78% 4.18 145.30%
NH Flat 19 4 66 30.65% 3.79 116.03%
NH Hurdles 66 8 248 27.50% 3.23 88.85%

So, it seems that it is rather profitable to back Top Rated Mares and Fillies in National Hunt Chases (and marginally profitable to back Top Rated Mares and Fillies in National Hunt Flat races.)

Please feel free to download the spreadsheet and have a play with it (it might be interesting to look at the Class of the race?) to see if you can add any other filters to further improve the profitability.

The spreadsheet can be found at... http://focusratings.com/data/nh_ladies.xls - you'll notice that there are 2 tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet; one for the data and one for the analysis.

focus_ratings_value_bettingIt's all about Value!

Now, I don't actually think that Mares and Fillies do better than their male counterparts in National Hunt Chase races.

However, because people think that Mares and Fillies are at a disadvantage...

Those horses are underbet.

And that creates value in the market.

And value is what it's all about!

My take on the matter is that...

If you could find someone to give you True Odds on the result of tossing a coin, then they would give you evens (there is a 50% chance that the coin will come down heads or tails.)

If you convince that person to give you 2/1 on the possibility of the coin coming down tails then you have achieved value.

Because people seem to think that Mares and Fillies are at a disadvantage, they are underbet and...

As a result, the average Starting Price increases.

And you get a Value Bet!

And It's All About Value!

And, I know that I've just repeated myself but...

I think that it's very important to make this clear?

Conclusion

Please note that I offer this as a diversion; I have said many times that I am not a tipster.

However, I do know that many of you are looking at some interesting ways to profit from the ratings and this might be an idea for you to look at (or add to your portfolio?)

If there is enough interest, I would be happy to automatically generate the selections and put them into a PDF (with a link to that PDF on the morning email) every day?

The spreadsheet can be found at... http://focusratings.com/data/nh_ladies.xls - you'll notice that there are 2 tabs at the bottom of the spreadsheet; one for the data and one for the analysis.

The rules of the strategy are amazingly simple...

1). Top Rated Horse

2). National Hunt Chases

3). Horse must be a Mare or a Filly

Too easy, really?

But there is logic there...

a). The strategy uses the superiority of the Top Rated Horses (just look at the recent Strike Rate?)

b). The strategy uses (or seems to) the apparent fact that Mares and Fillies are underbet and thus, Value Bets?

A Word of Warning...

I hope that you have found this interesting?

I hope that you're not all about to rush out and mortgage your houses, sell your grannies into the white slave trade and send your children down the pit...

Just so that you can put the lot (every penny you can raise) on...

Heads or Tails?

After all...

It's just a simple system and....

As I've said many times...

I'm not a tipster?

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

P.S. Many thanks to Neil B. for all his encouragement in the process of producing this system. And, for, occasionally, kicking me up the arse to make sure that I actually did it.

P.P.S. I am very aware that this is totally the wrong time of the year to produce a system for National Hunt Chases but...

It may be worth while making a note in your diary to take another look at this in about 6 month's time.

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