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Selection Filtering

focus_ratings_filter_selectionsFiltering Selections

In order to prepare for the launch of our Portfolio (a group of high ROI systems designed to generate one selection a day), Jill and I have actually started betting on the selections.

Somehow, risking my own money (from my red wine and smelly cheese fund) on the selections sort of seems the honourable thing to do?

Anyway...

Yesterday a selection came up but...

Before I put a bet on...

I had an idea.

I know...

That sort of thing doesn't happen often but...

Yesterday it saved me money.

And that's always nice, isn't it?

Filtering Builder Selections.

Now, the Builder is fine for creating systems but a system that works well in January may not work so well in October?

I know that Flat Racing is April (rested horses but also brand new 2 year olds) is different to Flat Racing in August.

I know that a Novice Hurdle in October is not the same as a Novice Hurdle in March (when the decent horses will have won and will be carrying extra weight and, possibly, all the horses might be a bit tired?)

And, if I've got that wrong, just put it down to the fact that...

I really don't know very much about horse racing!

My system selection yesterday was...

Flat Apprentice - not April

where R4 Status = 1 and where Race Type = Flat and where the Race is an Apprentice Race and Horse\'s last run was less than 14 days ago and where Country = UK and the Month is May or the Month is June or the Month is July or the Month is August or the Month is September or the Month is October and the Horse\'s R4 is greater than 3.5

Selection = Back to ISP - Newmarket - 17:15:00 - Fire Fighting (2)

Races (over last year): 58 Wins: 21 Strike Rate: 36.21% ROI: 155.70%

I decided to check the performance of that system for October.

So I went to the Builder and re-ran that query but...

Just for October, last year.

The results were interesting...

There were 2 races in October and the selections both lost.

Conclusion

That decided it for me.

I put my sixpence back in the piggybank and decided not to bet.

I then sat down and had a nice cup of tea (actually, that's a lie - it was a nice glass of wine; but then, I do live in France?)

And wondered if Current month Strike Rate/ROI (for the previous year) might be a useful addition to the morning Selections email?

It could always be something that could be switched off by you (on your Members Page) if it's not required?

By the way, Fire Fighting came 2nd (by a neck) in the 5:15 at Newmarket.

Which, in a way, sort of validates the system (it didn't get the selection too far wrong) but, at the same time...

My additional check did save me my sixpence.

Anyway, if you have any thoughts on the above...

Please let me know.

As always...

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

4 Responses to “Selection Filtering”

  1. Michael O´Reilly says:

    Sounds like a great idea. Another possible idea along those lines might be the form of the system for the current month. That way we could see if the system was currently hot or cold.

  2. John Ireland says:

    That would put the icing on the cake, so to speak – so from one wine imbiber to another – please ice our collective cake….ps: I lost my sixpence, but drowned my sorrows.
    pps: you are doing a great job and so cheap at the price…it can only be love!!!
    Bottoms up!,

    John.

  3. frankco says:

    Nice one Keith.

    Something you might consider is that flat turf sprints (5f-7f) after the end of August have a bad record for horses with a big weight, whereas the opposite is true over further.

  4. stephenj90 says:

    I think that is a great idea, and very useful addition to the system selections. Nice one 🙂

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