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Yield – an Introduction

focus_ratings_yieldYield

I recently added a Yield column to the ratings and I promised that I would explain it when I actually worked out what it meant!

Well, to me (the creator of the ratings) I think that it is a logical indicator of something important...

It's just that, at this point, I'm not too sure what that is?

But...

I'm not going to give up; I'll keep at it until I work out an explanation or a strategy.

Rather than trying to come up with a single, comprehensive strategy, I am going to break it up into little bites, investigate different angles and then, try to put those little angles together.

So, what is Yield?

Yield is basically the Confidence multiplied by the Forecast Starting Price.

To explain why I thought that it might be important, I shall use a football analogy...

Just say that Manchester United are playing West Ham...

I'd normally say that Man U. are a far better team than West Ham; certainly in recent years they've down pretty well?

You could describe the quality of Man U. as a percentage (as I do with the confidence level?)

So you might say that, if West Ham had a confidence level of 100%, then I (as someone who knows nothing about football) might give Man U a confidence level of 150%

Now, just say that Bert the Bookie is offering you 2.0 for Man U. to win and 2.5 for West Ham to win then Man U. would have a Yield of 3.0 and West Ham would have a Yield of 2.5

But...

What if the Bookie was offering you 1.5 for Man U. to win and 5.0 for West Ham to win?

Now Man U. would have a Yield of 2.25 and West Ham would have a Yield of 5.0 and that might indicate (and, more importantly, quantify) a Value Bet for the underdog?

Something along the lines of... "Back the 2nd Rated Horse when its Yield is twice that of the top rated horse"?

Anyway, that was the theory but I haven't been able to find out how to implement it yet?

But...

Handicaps

I did notice yesterday, that looking at Saturday's results, there was a slight trend that may prove useful?

I created a spreadsheet of Saturday's results and then stripped out all the 3rd rated horses.

I then added an additional column which shows Yield Status.

I'll explain...

If the top rated horse has a Yield of 3 and the 2nd Rated horse has a Yield of 4 then the top rated horse will have a Yield Status of 1 and the 2nd rated horse will have a Yield Status of 2.

If the top rated horse has a Yield of 4 and the 2nd Rated horse has a Yield of 3 then the top rated horse will have a Yield Status of 2 and the 2nd rated horse will have a Yield Status of 1.

On Saturday (10th May 2014) there were 28 Handicap races and 19 Non Handicaps.

For the Non Handicaps (and only looking at the top 2 rated horses)...

6 of the 19 races were won by the horse that had the lower Yield (or a Yield Status of 1), giving a Strike Rate of 31.58% and an ROI of 72.95% (a loss, in other words.)

1 of the 19 races were won by the horse that had the higher Yield (or a Yield Status of 2), giving a Strike Rate of 5.56% and an ROI of 20.83% (a bigger loss!)

For the Handicap races (and only looking at the top 2 rated horses)...

8 of the 28 races were won by the horse that had the lower Yield (or a Yield Status of 1), giving a Strike Rate of 30.77% and an ROI of 155.31% (a reasonable profit, in other words.)

4 of the 28 races were won by the horse that had the higher Yield (or a Yield Status of 2), giving a Strike Rate of 14.81% and an ROI of 64.07% (whoops, another loss.)

The races can be checked on the spreadsheet which I have copied up to... http://focusratings.com/data/yield.xls

Now, one day's results don't mean much but...

The results would suggest thinking about the horse (of the top 2 rated) with the lowest Yield in Handicap races?

Conclusion

Anyway, to really handle this sort of information requires better spreadsheet skills than I possess so I shall have to write a program to generate a one off new type of spreadsheet with only the top 2 rated horses listed and the Yield Status computed and added.

This will allow a better way of analysing the data to see if there are any long term observable trends.

As soon as I have done this, I'll get back to you with my results and a copy of the new spreadsheet for you to take a look at and analysis (if you so wish.)

My kindest regards

keith-eckstein1

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